Siddy holds a Master’s degree in Economics from the University of Antwerp and a Master's degree in Financial Management from the Vlerick Business School. Passionate by innovation and entrepreneurship, he also participated to an Executive Master in Venture Capital at the Berkeley Haas School of Business. Prior to joining Econopolis, he managed the Investor Relations & Treasury office at Orange Belgium, a telecom company. Siddy also held the position of Telecom, Media & Technology analyst at a large Belgian Asset Management firm. Further, he is also active in the advisory board of StartupVillage and The Beacon, a business and innovation hub in the center of Antwerp focused on Internet of Things and Artificial Intelligence in the domains of industry, logistics and smart city. At Econopolis, he is Portfolio Manager of the Econopolis Exponential Technologies Fund.
Fiery Flash: Nvidia's wild ride: From AI heights to macro market jitters
Our Fiery Flash of the week is Nvidia, which experienced a dramatic swing in its stock price following its latest earnings report. Initially, shares surged on stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results and solid guidance, only to reverse course and drop 8.5%, closing at $120.15. The culprit? Not Nvidia’s fundamentals, but broader macroeconomic concerns and political uncertainty.
Nvidia remains the undisputed leader in AI-focused semiconductor technology. Its GPUs power everything from high-performance gaming to deep-learning applications, cementing its role as a cornerstone of the AI revolution. Over the past year, the company has experienced explosive growth, driven by soaring demand for AI chips in data centers, cloud computing, and autonomous systems.
Nvidia’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results were nothing short of stellar. The company reported record revenue of $39.3 billion, reflecting a 12% sequential increase and a staggering 78% year-over-year jump. Its data center segment, the primary growth engine, contributed $35.6 billion, marking a 93% annual surge. Gross margins remained robust at 73%, while earnings per share exceeded estimates. A key testament to this demand was the successful launch of Nvidia’s latest-generation Blackwell chips, which generated $11 billion in sales, far surpassing expectations, which ranged from just a few billion to, at most, $5–9 billion. Nvidia’s guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 was equally strong. The company forecasts revenue of approximately $43 billion, a growth of about 65%, surpassing analyst expectations and reinforcing the strong momentum of Blackwell in the AI chip market. CEO Jensen Huang also expressed confidence in the ongoing AI revolution, emphasizing that AI scaling laws, including pre-training, post-training, and reasoning AI inference, continue to drive efficiency and breakthroughs in machine learning applications. AI scaling laws describe the consistent relationship between model size, data, and compute power, showing that larger models trained with more data and higher computational resources yield exponentially better performance. These laws have unlocked unprecedented capabilities, enabling models to deliver more advanced reasoning, deeper insights, and richer outputs as they grow in size and complexity. While early AI systems, such as the first iterations of ChatGPT, were effective with relatively modest computational resources, the latest generation of deep research and reasoning AIs achieve far greater sophistication, but require 100 times more compute.
As such, the markets initially responded with enthusiasm, pushing Nvidia’s stock higher in post-market trading. However, the rally was short-lived. Sentiment shifted after weaker-than-expected U.S. job and home sales data raised concerns about economic growth. The selloff deepened following former President Donald Trump’s announcement of potential new tariffs. Trump threatened to impose an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports starting March 4, on top of the 10% tariff implemented earlier this month, effectively doubling duties on Chinese goods to 20%. Additionally, Trump confirmed that the 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico will take effect on March 4, 2025, alongside plans for "reciprocal tariffs" against key trade partners, including Europe, starting April 2. Obviously, this rhetoric reignited fears of a trade war that could disrupt technology supply chains and global semiconductor demand.
Nvidia’s recent stock movement doesn’t reflect its business fundamentals, which remain exceptionally strong. Instead, macroeconomic uncertainties and political risks have weighed on investor sentiment, triggering the selloff. The company’s dominant AI positioning, continued data center expansion, and robust earnings outlook keep it well-positioned for long-term growth. However, market volatility and external factors may continue to drive short-term price swings. Investors should brace for further turbulence while keeping an eye on Nvidia’s fundamental strength. Notably, Nvidia’s valuation is not demanding relative to its historical multiples, suggesting that long-term investors may find this an attractive entry point.
About the author
Siddy Jobe