This week, instead of a chart, we include a simple map from the International Energy Agency (IEA) illustrating the Gulf’s oil exports that transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Considering last weekend’s sharp escalation in Iran and the wider Gulf region, we highlight the macro-economic importance of this narrow passage between Iran and Oman for global energy flows…and economic ...

Stock prices are determined by expectations of market participants. Rarely have stocks reacted so vehemently on the publication of results as during the current earnings’ season. On supposedly good results, a stock can easily jump 10, 20% or more and vice versa. In such an environment, it is hard to remain sanguine. When is a stock move fundamentally justified and when not? We’ ...

In this week’s MacroFriday, we look briefly at the current inflation dynamics in the US economy. The US Consumer Price Index rose 0,2% month on month in January. As last year’s sharp rise of 0,5% in January fell out of the index, headline inflation fell to 2,4% in January, from 2,7% in December. Annual core inflation eased to 2,5%, the lowest reading since March 2021. President ...

This week, Siddy Jobe joined Squawk Box Europe on CNBC for a live discussion on the latest results from NVIDIA. What may look like a smooth five-minute television segment is, in reality, an intense exchange. The questions are sharp, the timing is tight, and the audience consists of global investors watching closely. Together with Stephen Sedgwick, Karen Tso, and Ben Boulos, we ...

Last week, we took a closer look at the impact of the Emission Trading System (ETS) – the European system that puts a price on CO₂ emissions – on final electricity prices. We explained how electricity market prices are determined through marginal cost pricing, calculated that ETS accounts for roughly 23% of the marginal production cost of a gas-fired power plant, but noted that ...

Impact on the labour market Analyses of artificial intelligence and its potential impact on how we live and work are appearing with growing frequency. A recent report by the High Council for Employment in Belgium highlights risks for young people and for workers engaged in routine or administrative tasks. Knowledge workers whose roles are not complementary to AI may be exposed. ...

Wind energy is affordable – it has a low levelised cost of energy compared to other energy sources –, is sustainable (renewable, helps to mitigate climate change), reduces countries’ dependence on imported energy (energy security) and enhances the energy system resilience. Over the past two decades, global wind capacity (offshore and onshore combined) grew over twenty-fold and ...

Following last week’s industrial summits in Antwerp and Alden Biesen, the ETS system – the European Emissions Trading System for CO₂ allowances – was heavily debated. ETS and CBAM place additional pressure on industry, which is already facing economic challenges, so some actors argue that we should change the rules. Other voices focus more on the “juste retour” principle: the i ...

Notwithstanding fairly stable to declining prices of food commodities, the stocks of the agriculture producers are breaking out. In line with a stock market that currently prefers 'atoms over bits', we recently see a strong increase in agriculture-related shares. While commodity prices usually lead producer stocks, this time there seems to be more going on under the hood - let’ ...

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator fell to its lowest level since 2014 in January. Meanwhile, consumer spending has been quite resilient. This paradox reflects another K-shape in the US economy. US consumer confidence has deteriorated markedly in recent months, with the Conference Board’s measure sliding to its weakest level in more than 12 years. This reflect ...