Reminiscences of an analyst: the resurrection of the Belgian stock market Image generated by Gemini Beautiful Bel20 Year-to-date, the Bel20 net return index delivered a return of roughly 18%. That is almost as much as the Nasdaq composite (+22.8%) and better than the S&P 500 (+17%), excluding the 10% drop of the US dollar. Returns vary strongly amongst indices and with ...
#MacroFriday: Boom in Infrastructure Spending Behind the AI Revolution
After last week’s research trip to Boston, where we focused on developments in automatization, robotics and of course AI, we dedicate this week’s MacroFriday to the remarkable surge in construction spending in US manufacturing related to this fields. Although reshoring manufacturing to U.S. soil might be the current talk of the town, these developments have actually been under ...
Why “Self-Sufficiency” will spark more climate action than “Moral Ambitions”
Three years ago, together with Geert Noels and Yanaika Denoyelle, I co-authored “Climate Shock”, a book in which we outlined twenty climate solutions for Belgium and quantified their CO₂ impact. Since then, the world has changed profoundly, and so has the way we approach climate policy. Public interest in climate issues has declined, and political support across Europe is far m ...
Shipping’s Climate Moment: A Tax That Could Reshape the High Seas
This Friday, the global shipping sector may have reached an inflection point. In London, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) gathers its member states to vote on what could become the world’s first binding climate deal for commercial maritime transport. At stake is a carbon pricing framework designed to steer a sector responsible for roughly three percent of global gr ...
#MacroFriday: The Golden Age of Gold
The last time we discussed this graph in our MacroFriday was in February, when the gold price hit a record high of 2882 USD per ounce. Eight months later, gold is trading at around 4,240 USD per ounce, marking an impressive 47% price increase. The high (negative) correlation between the gold price and the US real rate broke in 2022. A key driver of gold's rally since th ...
(Don’t Fear) the Reaper
How the age of the deal made chaos look investable. “I gave up caring about anything and all my problems disappeared”. (Friedrich Nietzsche) “I’ve been studying this now for three years. I’ve read 25 books on it”. (Jared Kushner) “I don't like violence, Tom. I'm a businessman; blood is a big expense”. (Virgil Solozzo in ‘The Godfather’) Back in Februar ...
Headwinds for Wind: Can We Still Reach the NZE 2030 Target?
Last week, we took a dive into solar PV additions in 2024, placing them against the 2030 NZE benchmark to see how far we’ve come. This week, we turn our eyes to wind power. It’s important to start from the same reference point: under the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions scenario, 2,742 GW of installed wind capacity (onshore and offshore combined) is needed by 2030. With solar surging, ...
From Code to Medicine to Climate: How Resilience Investments Are Driving New Opportunities
Image generated by Gemini Europe stands at a crossroads. The shocks of recent years — from the pandemic to the war in Ukraine — have laid bare just how fragile the continent’s economic and defensive foundations can be. Supply chains once taken for granted have splintered, energy dependencies have become strategic risks, and the comfortable assumption of lasting peace has gi ...
#MacroFriday: Shutdown Underlines US Mounting Debt Burden
Last wednesday, the U.S. government entered a shutdown after Republicans and Democrats failed to agree on a new federal funding bill. As a result, non-essential government functions have been suspended: ‘non-essential’ federal workers are furloughed without pay, while others in ‘essential’ roles continue to work temporarily unpaid. President Trump’s renewed threats of potential ...
#MacroFriday: China's Strategic Grip on the West
After Wednesday’s Econopolis Economic Encounter, with guest speaker Professor David Criekemans discussing his new book Hyperrealism, it is only logical we dedicate our MacroFriday to geopolitics. The lack of resources in some regions, or the strategic control over them in others, can play a vital role in economic developments. And China holds considerable leverage over the West ...