Our new ortelius report is out: Battery Metals for the EU

Read the 10 key messages below — and download the full report for free

We’ve just launched our latest Ortelius study: Critical Raw Materials for Battery Technologies in the EU. (https://ortelius.be/critical-raw-materials/)

The report explores Europe’s growing exposure in sourcing the metals that power the energy transition — and what that means for our climate goals, industrial competitiveness, and strategic autonomy.

The key insight? Even with every solution currently on the table — from recycling and demand reduction to new mines and strategic partnerships — the EU’s vulnerable supply gap is on track to double by 2040.

10 Key Messages from the Report

1. Still critically dependent on the same few countrie
   Europe sources ~60% of its lithium from Chile and ~80% of its cobalt from the DRC — the same suppliers everyone else depends on. As global demand rises, that vulnerability will only grow.
2. Demand management has been overlooked — but can’t save us
   Measures like carsharing, modal shift, and smarter product design help reduce material demand. But this side of the equation remains underdeveloped in EU strategy — and on its own, it’s not enough.
3. Recycling only scales after 2040 — and the clock keeps ticking
   The stock of critical metals in use today is still too small. Large-scale recycling won’t begin until batteries reach end-of-life — and every delay in building a circular system shifts that timeline further into the future.
4. Substitution can help — but always comes with trade-offs
   Replacing scarce or geopolitically sensitive materials with more abundant alternatives is a valuable strategy. But as the case of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries shows, quick wins can come with long-term costs. LFP is cheaper to produce— but also less valuable for recyclers. Which may cause problems in the long run.
5. Europe cannot mine its way out
   Even under optimistic scenarios, European mining could supply just 3% of the EU’s cobalt needs in 2040, 15% for nickel, and 20% for lithium. Long permitting timelines and strong local resistance make higher numbers unlikely.
6. Refining is Europe’s best shot at leverage — but China is ahead
   Developing domestic refining capacity can anchor battery value chains and strengthen industrial resilience. But others — particularly China — already have a strategic lead.
7. The climate transition reduces total mining, even as demand for metals rises
   Critical raw materials can be reused. Fossil fuels can’t. So while mining for battery metals will rise, total extraction declines as we move away from coal, oil, and gas.
8. Biodiversity trade-offs must be made with a global lens
   Delaying a project to protect local nature may shift the impact to a more fragile ecosystem abroad. Environmental choices in mining and recycling need global coordination, not just national assessments.
9. The battery industry can lead by example — via the digital battery passport
   This new EU regulation introduces transparency on social and environmental impacts. It sets a precedent. Other sectors relying on extractive industries should follow its lead.
10. Even in the best case, 38% of supply remains vulnerable
    That means the EU must expand its toolbox: international partnerships, alternative sources like geothermal brines and extractive waste — and yes, even deep sea mining — need to be seriously considered.

What Ortelius Can Do

This challenge isn’t just technical — it’s strategic. It touches on the very foundation of Europe’s industrial future.

At Ortelius, we support decision-makers with clear-eyed, data-driven analysis. Whether you're a policymaker, company, or investor, we help you see the full picture — from geopolitical risk to supply chain design, circular strategy, and scenario analyses.

📘 Download the full report: https://ortelius.be/critical-raw-materials/
📬 Want to discuss how this impacts your strategy? We’re happy to connect ar info@ortelius.be