#MacroFriday: China's Export Engine still Roars

We’re back with our MacroFriday, accompanied by our best wishes for 2026! The new year is only two weeks old and the macro-economic candy jar is already filled with plenty of sweets (and sours): changing geopolitical circumstances, PMIs, US inflation, central bank independency, and precious metals becoming even more precious (perhaps a topic for next week). However, we kick off the new year with the newly released Chinese trade data.

Despite the trade uncertainties that marked 2025, China ended the year with a record-high trade surplus of $1,2 trillion. While imports stagnated (0,0%) over the year, Chinese exports increased by 5,5% in 2025. This reflects both subdued domestic consumption and continued strong global demand for Chinese manufactured goods. On other words, China’s export engine is not faltering and likely made a large positive contribution to Chinese GDP growth in 2025.

The export data also underscored ongoing regional shifts in China’s trade linkages: exports to the United States fell by -19,8% in 2025. While exports to the US accounted for 14,5% of total exports at the end of 2024, this share dropped below 10% one year later. Robust export growth to other markets more than offset the decline in exports to the US. Shipments to the EU (+8,5%), Latin America (+7,4%) and to ASEAN countries (+13,4%) helped China diversify trade away from the US market. Of course, this data only shows where goods are shipped directly from China. As trade flows are dynamic and companies adapt to changing situations, a portion of these redirected Chinese exports may still end up in the United States as a final destination.