Making Peace with the Wind Thief

A few weeks ago, a first-of-its-kind agreement was reached in the offshore wind sector: Ørsted, the Danish renewables giant, struck a deal with JERA Nex-BP and EnBW to compensate for expected production losses due to wake effects from the future Morgan and Mona offshore wind farms in the Irish Sea. These projects, totaling 3 GW of capacity, are expected to impact wind flow to existing Ørsted assets like the Burbo Bank Complex. The deal ends a lengthy dispute and allows all projects to move forward, reportedly with a clause obliging the new developers to consider “wind theft” in their permitting process.

While this deal is a significant step forward, it also underscores a growing structural challenge in Europe’s offshore wind rollout: if the build-out is not coordinated, wake effects will increasingly undermine the efficiency and economics of offshore wind.

Why Wake Effects Matter

Wake effects occur when wind turbines extract energy from the wind, leaving behind slower, more turbulent air. In simple terms: if you're standing behind a turbine, you're going to get less wind. The same applies to wind farms.

These effects can stretch as far as 100 kilometers behind a wind farm and, in poorly planned layouts, can reduce energy yield by up to 30%. This is more than a technical nuisance — it's a direct financial hit. Offshore wind projects are capital-intensive, with business models that rely on consistent, high capacity factors to recoup enormous upfront investments. Even a 2–3% drop in yield can shave tens of millions off expected revenues over the life of a park. For developers, wake losses can be the difference between a viable business case and a stranded asset.

This effects conflicts with Europe racing to triple or even quadruple offshore wind capacity by 2040 — especially in the crowded North Sea. But without coordinated spatial planning, we risk a paradox: more installed capacity, but less energy delivered. The idea that “more is better” falls apart when each new turbine reduces the performance of those already spinning.

Our Contribution: North-C-Neutral

In response to this challenge, we have developed an optimization tool under the North-C-Neutral project that models wake effects at scale and simulates spatial deployment scenarios for the North Sea. Our tool doesn’t just flag problematic layouts — it suggests cooperative, system-optimal solutions that minimize inter-farm interference while maximizing regional wind yields.

With mounting pressure to triple or even quadruple offshore wind capacity by 2040, these insights are no longer a luxury — they’re a necessity. Our work empowers governments and developers alike to move from reactive compensation deals to proactive planning that ensures offshore wind remains a cornerstone of Europe's decarbonized power system.

If you’re a developer, policymaker, or investor looking to navigate the increasingly crowded seas of offshore wind, don’t hesitate to reach out. Our team is happy to share insights from our modelling work and collaborate on building a smarter, more sustainable North Sea.