#MacroFriday: No Antidote to Tariffs
Slowly, economic data are uncovering the effects of trade uncertainties following Trump’s tariff hikes. This week’s MacroFriday specifically looks at changes in Belgian exports to the US.
The total value of Belgian exports to the US in Q2 fell to €7.27 billion, a drop of 12.1% compared to the same period last year. This is the lowest (nominal) export value since Q4 2021. With more than 50% of Belgian exports to the US consisting of pharmaceutical products, the implementation of tariffs on these goods will be detrimental for the trade balance between the two countries. Compared Q2 of last year, Belgian exports of pharmaceutical products to the US fell by -18,8%. Exports of cars and motor vehicles from Belgium to the US also saw a sharp drop, although the decline in this category has been ongoing for several quarters now.
Compared to the first quarter of 2025, when companies tried to anticipate the coming tariffs by swiftly exporting their products to US soil, the declines in Q2 exports are even more pronounced. The total value of Belgian exports to the US was 23% lower in Q2. Over this quarter, the value of exported pharmaceuticals to the US dropped by 34%.
It will be interesting to see how things develop in the coming months and quarters. The trade deal between the US and the EU, which imposes a 15% tariff on most products, is likely to have a negative impact on Belgian exports to the US. But US importers will also feel the consequences, as some companies are already signalling depleted inventories and disrupted supply chains. Still, it will take time before structural changes in trade flows between Belgium and the US can be identified, as uncertainties remain.
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