Solar Surge Revisited: Are We Closing in on the 2030 Net Zero Target?

 

More than a year ago, our weekly Climate Shocker studied the global solar PV capacity additions for 2023 and how they stacked up against the Net Zero Emissions (NZE) targets for 2030. With 2024 well behind us and new data available, it felt like the right moment to revisit those numbers and assess where we stand. In this update, the focus will lie on grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity. For those less familiar with the terminology, PV refers to technology that converts sunlight directly into electricity, commonly deployed via solar panels. When we speak of capacity, we refer to the maximum power output the system can deliver under optimal conditions, measured in gigawatts (GW). This differs from electricity generation, which indicates how much energy is actually produced over time. For obvious reasons, the two are closely correlated: the more capacity you install, the more electricity you’re likely to generate, although factors like sunlight availability, system efficiency, and geographic distribution all play a role.

 

Figure 1: Capacity additions of solar PV over the past three years (GW). Source: IRENA

 

The year 2024 turned out to be another record-setter for solar. Globally, a total of 452 GW of new PV capacity was installed, representing a sharp increase from the 356 GW added in 2023. That’s a 27 percent year-on-year growth in capacity additions, highlighting just how quickly the solar buildout is accelerating. Much of this growth continues to be driven by China, which installed an astonishing 276 GW in 2024 alone. This figure represents more than 60 percent of all solar PV capacity added worldwide this year. To put this into perspective, China added more PV capacity in 2022 alone (86 GW) than the United States did across the entire 2022–2024 period, where its cumulative additions amounted to 82 GW. The European Union also expanded its PV footprint by installing 38 GW in 2024, more than 50 percent higher than the 25 GW added by the United States in the same year. These regional dynamics are not only remarkable on their own but help contextualize how global leadership in solar continues to shift eastward.

 

Figure 2: Additions to the global PV capacity stock compared to the 2030 NZE Target. Source: IRENA

 

This brings us back to the NZE goal. As a reminder, the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions scenario calls for 6,101 GW of total installed solar PV capacity by the year 2030. By the end of 2024, the global stock had reached 1,858 GW. That’s a major achievement in itself, but still not even halfway to the finish line, with only five years left to bridge the gap. To get there, the world will need to add roughly 848 GW per year on average between now and 2030: nearly double the record-breaking pace seen in 2024. The challenge is steep, but not necessarily out of reach. Preliminary outlooks, such as those from SolarPower Europe, suggest another ten percent growth in additions is possible in 2025, pushing total new installations close to 500 GW. And with China’s manufacturing scale and global exports continuing to expand, further acceleration is well within the realm of possibility.

Even if we ultimately fall short of the NZE capacity target, the scale and speed of today’s solar buildout is already reshaping the energy landscape in ways few would have predicted a decade ago. What seemed like a long-term aspiration is increasingly becoming a tangible reality. Solar PV is not just a promising clean energy source—it’s quickly becoming the backbone of the global electricity system.