Headwinds for Wind: Can We Still Reach the NZE 2030 Target?

Last week, we took a dive into solar PV additions in 2024, placing them against the 2030 NZE benchmark to see how far we’ve come. This week, we turn our eyes to wind power. It’s important to start from the same reference point: under the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions scenario, 2,742 GW of installed wind capacity (onshore and offshore combined) is needed by 2030. With solar surging, wind must also keep pace (or preferably accelerate) to make that pathway viable.

In 2024, total new wind additions globally reached 114 GW, only marginally below the 115 GW added in 2023. China again dominated the field, contributing 80 GW of that total. That’s a modest rise from the 75 GW it installed in 2023, but enough to cement its position at the center of global wind expansion. As of the end of 2024, China’s cumulative wind capacity stood at 521 GW out of approximately 1,132 GW globally, meaning China now accounts for nearly half of all installed wind power capacity. Despite China’s dominance, the overall global buildout has not accelerated; in fact, it plateaued. That slower growth is especially striking when compared with solar, which continues to break new records. The fact that wind additions fell slightly year-on-year (driven chiefly by a drop in European installations) is a red flag. In the EU, permitting hurdles, local opposition to onshore wind, and higher project development costs appear to be biting. Meanwhile, offshore wind development in key regions such as the U.S. has seen permit cancellations that could seriously slow future deployment.

Figure 1: Capacity additions of wind power over the past three years (GW). Source: IRENA

With 1,132 GW installed globally, we remain far short of the NZE target of 2,742 GW. To hit it, we would need to add about 321 GW per year from 2025 through 2030. That’s nearly triple the 2024 rate. That’s a steep climb and likely much harder to achieve for wind than for solar, given the sector’s structural headwinds.

Figure 2: Additions to the global wind power capacity stock compared to the 2030 NZE Target. Source: IRENA

One major burden has been rising costs, particularly in the supply chain for wind turbines, foundations, cabling, and installation vessels. Inflationary pressures over the past few years have squeezed developer margins and made project finance more challenging, especially in offshore wind where the scale and complexity multiply risks. In Europe, onshore wind is increasingly stalled by permitting delays and community pushback, while in the U.S., high-profile cancellations of offshore project permits have sent discouraging signals to investors.

Still, wind is not without reasons for optimism. In 2024, China pushed the technology frontier by installing a 20 MW prototype offshore wind turbine, developed by Mingyang, which set a new benchmark for single-unit capacity. Later in the year, Dongfang Electric rolled out a 26 MW turbine, currently the largest of its kind. These technological leaps can lower the levelized cost of wind energy, reduce balance-of-system complexity, and open the door to faster expansion in favorable markets. That said, scaling such advanced turbines globally and incorporating them into project stacks in countries with weaker permitting or infrastructure will take time. The contrast with solar is stark: solar’s modularity, simpler site preparation, and declining costs have allowed it to scale more rapidly. Wind faces the twin challenges of civil and marine engineering complexity plus regulatory and social constraints.

Even if the 2,742 GW wind target for 2030 proves out of reach, the growth we are seeing is still remarkable by historical standards. But for wind to play its full role in the clean energy transition, the next few years must not just see continuation of growth, but bold acceleration, innovation, and reform.