The EU’s critical raw material dilemma: Our new report drops next week

Europe has a materials problem. And it’s getting bigger.

As the green transition accelerates and clean tech ramps up, the EU’s demand for critical raw materials is set to skyrocket. Think, for example, of nickel, cobalt and manganese — the lifeblood of batteries, but also the future of mobility, energy, defense, and industrial competitiveness. Yet while Europe formulates plans and policies, others are already on the move. China has spent the past decade quietly tightening its grip on processing capacity. The US, not known for sitting still when interests are at stake, has recently struck a critical minerals deal with Ukraine and issued an executive order to fast-track deep-sea mining. Meanwhile, Brussels is still caught between ambition and dependency.

And let’s not kid ourselves: this isn’t just about batteries. It's about whether Europe can maintain strategic autonomy in an age where access to materials determines geopolitical leverage. From next-generation fighter jets to missile systems, from surveillance tech to battlefield electrification — the defense sector runs on the same metals powering your EV.

At Ortelius, we decided to crunch the numbers and test the resilience of the EU’s Critical Raw Materials strategy. The result? Our new study “Critical Battery Metals for the EU” goes beyond policy fluff to deliver hard numbers on just how far each policy lever (recycling, EU mining, foreign partnerships, demand management) can actually take us.

Spoiler alert: even under the most optimistic scenarios, our dependencies on vulnerable suppliers will only increase. Yes, the CRMA is a good start. But no, it’s not enough. By 2040, the EU's exposure to strategic risks will grow in tandem.

Want the full story? The report launches next week.

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And if your organization is grappling with similar strategic challenges — in energy, defense, tech, or mobility — we’d be happy to talk. Ortelius helps public and private actors navigate complex economic transitions with a healthy dose of realism, analytics, and ambition.

Let’s make sure Europe’s future doesn’t depend on someone else’s supply chain.